Global peace index ranking improves in Myanmar + other

Myanmar improves in Global Peace Index ranking

Peace seems to be improving in Myanmar as the 2016 Global Peace Index report has ranked the country at the 115th spot, which is a stark improvement compared to its ranking last year. Myanmar was ranked 130 in previous years' Peace Index.

The Global Peace Index was instituted in 2007 by the Institute for Economics and Peace, an international think tank, that collects the data and conducts the research. The index considers a gamut of indicators to arrive at its Peace Index, including terrorism, military expenditure and political instability. This year a total of 163 countries were analysed to prepare the index.

Apparently, Myanmar's peace ranking is better than India, which is ranked 141st in the list, while Syria has emerged as the least peaceful country.

How do you see this when visiting in Myanmar?

More previously closed areas are now accessible easier and more tourist destinations has been opened during the last six years. Also there is no more curfew, that used to be the fact of life for decades. When I have been staying in country, I have not seen anything disturbing anymore, thou I have not visited the rural areas and stayed mainly on Yangon area. During my visits end of  80's and early 90's, there was military present everywhere and people were acting very hesitantly, comparing today.

Major problems with peace issue today are the mountain border areas  (India, China, Laos) with the limited possibilities to control them. That allows the areas to thrive with illegal activities including smuggling, logging, drug business and general disregard of the laws. However the major cities are very peaceful and relatively safe to visit and stay.

Education news from Mandalay

Just over one-third of students who sat for their matriculation exams this year in Mandalay Region have passed, the Department of Basic Education announced. The result is higher than the national pass rate of 29.9 percent announced in state media this weekend.

Out of 91,688 who registered for the exam in Mandalay, 35.5pc – or 32,551 students – achieved scores high enough to matriculate. Those who passed will now be allowed to register for university education.

Results revealed on June 11 were slightly down from last year, when 38.6pc of students passed. Last year the national pass rate was 37.6pc.

“I was so excited when I checked my results. I was worried, but I am happy because I passed with one distinction,” said Ma Su Myat Phyo, who took her tests at the Aung Myay Tharzan township exam centre.

Within Mandalay Region, the highest percentage of students passed in Mandalay district, at 40.58pc. The order from there was 38.06pc in Meiktila, 38.46pc in Pyin Oo Lwin, 31.32pc in Nyaung-U, 31.06pc in Myingyan and 29.55pc in Yamethin. Kyaukse District scored lowest at 29.44pc.

“I am relieved that my child passed the matriculation exam. It is important for them to be able to choose the right next steps for their future,” said U Ye Win Aung, a parent from Pyigyitagun township, part of Mandalay district.

Though unwilling to comment on the results, some parents said teaching methods have to be improved in order to achieve a higher graduate rate in the future.

“I am not in the position to comment on the percentages of the results. But, I would like to say that teaching for grade 11 matriculation students may need to change,” U Ye Win Aung said.

Out of all students who passed in Mandalay Region, nearly 25pc received distinctions, including 279 students who received distinctions for six subjects.

Medicine news

25 percent of the drugs available in local pharmacies are illegal or substandard.

In an ongoing effort to clamp down on the illegal and unregulated pharmaceutical black market, a Food and Drug Administration director announced plans yesterday to institute official retail prices.

The Maximum Retail Price (MRP) will stop businesses from staging a price war over official medications, and ideally will protect consumers, said Dr Than Htut, director general of the FDA.

Because of the price difference between registered and unregistered medicines in local markets, many patients cannot afford the legal product, he said.

He added that he intends to out-price the illegal market and will model the MRP system on India’s.

“Tomorrow I am going to join the [National Health Committee] meeting … where I will propose to implement this plan,” he said, referring to an advocacy and education conference for the pharmaceutical industry in Yangon.

Dr Thit Lwin, owner of a pharmacy wholesale shop in Mingalar Taung Nyunt township, said that while he supports better regulating the industry, a crackdown on prices needs to keep in mind the average patient’s limited budget.

“Unregistered medicine is very popular, with at least 100 kinds in one shop to meet the demand. Most people find and use cheap medicine because they are poor and the price between legal [registered] and illegal [unregistered but not necessarily fake] medicine is very different,” he said.

Dr Thit Lwin added that some patients need medicines that are not readily available in state health facilities, or are not purchased by the government. He gave the example of cancer medications, some of which are not registered by the state, driving desperate patients to underground imports. He said that while registered brands can cost K100,000, (about EUR 75.-)  a bottle of the same medication that has not been registered will cost K50,000 to 60,000.

He added that if the FDA shuts down the medical black market many patients will be in trouble.

“I am not urging the government to accept unlicensed medicine, but they need to register more medicines, control prices and arrange enough essential drugs,” he said.

My experience is that they have branded drugs as well as non-branded same drugs sold in same store. You can make your own decision, which one to buy. Price difference is substantial, could be 10 times. Major issues in Myanmar currently are with this field that;

1. Most of the products comes over the border without any real control. You pay some lump sum of "tax" and your cargo can be anything. Or the smaller items, like medicine, are just carried in backpack.

2. Medicin is sold without any control anywhere. The laws are not there or if they are, I don't see them followed. You can buy pretty much any medicine without any doctor control with low prices, if they are available. 

3. Many hospitals do not have drugs or materials themself. Patient have to go and buy everything if they have operation or medical treatment in hospital. Other Asian countries hospitals have also their own pharmacies so patients can get the medicine as soon as they leave the hospital and all medical materials are supplied from hospital, this is not the case in Myanmar. 

4. If you have money, it is often easier and better to fly to Bangkok or Singapore for treatment. 

Government should concentrate their affords first offering proper medical care with real hospital services, before going in to target "illegal" medicine business. After there is proper channels available, it is surely easier to suspend illegal drug sale and make proper licensed business practices for it. As long as there are no proper medical supply from legal channels and hospitals, all kind of unauthorized business will be standard in this field.

Logging in Myanmar, sea turtles and more

Logging in Myanmar

Myanmar has banned lucrative logging operations as the newly-elected government of democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi steps up a battle on deforestation, an environment official said on Thursday.

The restrictions start already at after 2011 elections bun since 60's the illegal logging, specially at Thai and China border has continued up till today. The main problems are that most neighboring countries has lost their own Rosewood and Teak forests and are eyeing Myanmar, that has had its forests mainly intact due the country's isolation last decades.

Currently the biggest problem is northern border logging that continues regardless the government ban of log exporting. The logging has been lucrative business and participants are not very keen on losing their profits, including government own logging companies. Also there is the question of getting a new work for almost 17000 workers in this industry.

IMO only way to stop this practice completely is to build Myanmar's own timber industry and demand for Teak and Rosewood so that neighboring countries can't compete with the manufacturing industry anymore. This is the long process but I am sure that if the job is done properly, enough foreign investments to this industry will help i.e. furniture manufacturing in Myanmar to compete in international level. Instead of selling raw wood, Myanmar government should attract companies to add the value the wood products and export only semi- or final hardwood products out.

Save sea turtles and dugongs in Myanmar

To the naked eye, the blue sea and miles of white sand with no development or people in sight were a vision of paradise. And yet, as we learned, below the surface things were far from idyllic. The young dugong that accidentally drowned in a fishing net was just one symptom of another tragedy and challenge unfolding in this country – one that, while nearly unnoticed, could have major implications for the future of millions of rural people.

Literally out of sight, the country’s marine resources have been pillaged almost to the point of no return. Research data released in February of this year by the Norwegian government demonstrated a decline in Myanmar’s oceanic and coastal fish stocks of between 70-90% since the late 1980’s.

If you are interested in to read some data, here is the Myanmar part report of BOBLME  project (THE BAY OF BENGAL LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM)

Updated Myanmar fishing industry report

Also Norwegian Institute for Water Research has done the pollution report of Myanmar waters, which you can read here:

Myanmar water pollution report

To protect these beautiful beaches and sea life, government should act fast before it is too late. The income from tourism will surpass any benefit in future over the excess fishing in Myanmar waters.The scuba-diving industry is increasing in the world, while the amount of  clean reefs and waters are reducing. So last intact areas will be the most valuable to this big tourism industry in future.

Myanmar giving tax exception to investors

In a bid to ensure equitable development, the Myanmar Investment Bill will enable investors to enjoy tax exemptions from three to seven years for designated regions and sectors.

The bill, to be passed this year, is a combination of the Foreign Investment Law and the Myanmar Citizens Investment Law. In addition, the Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC) will be reformed this month.

The MIC can scrutinize and allow tax exemption or relief to investors in order to support equitable development.

Aung Naing Oo, secretary of the MIC and director-general of the Directorate of Investment and Company Administration, said: "Now we are planning to attract a massive inflow of investment. The bill includes that provision. Investors in less-developed regions shall enjoy tax reductions rather than those in more developed regions. They can get tax relief based on the region and sector. The MIC will fix the rates after seeking the approval from the government and the enactment of the law."

The MIC will designate less-developed areas as Zone One, moderately developed regions as Zone Two and Zone Three for the areas least in need. Zone One investors can get tax exemption for seven years, Zone Two for five years and Zone Three for three years.

Whats good with this? The investments are spread more around the country, not just the Yangon or other major cities. Also the labor cost is usually lower in rural areas so the manufacturing costs are lower.  And downside? It is hard to attract foreigners staying far out of major cities due the lack of modern living facilities (I.E. water, shops, electricity and proper modern sewage system).

Getting 3 years tax exemption will naturally pressure you to make as much profit in these 3 years as possible, which is usually hard for the new business. So these kind of incentives attracts mainly large international companies that can move the goods and manufacturing process fast from place to place. To attract more long term permanent manufacturing  business, government should provide infrastructure with proper facilities with low cost as it is done in Europe and many other places. End of the day the tax benefit will help only some prospectors, not long term the country. 

New constitution draft finally?

1990 vs 2015 elections

1990's original MP's are to form a draft committee for new constitution. At 1990 Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD won the elections to form a constitution first time but the election results were cancelled and it took 25 years to start the process again.

The Members of Parliament Union 1990 want to make radical changes to the military-drafted 2008 charter. Political analyst U Yan Myo Thein told  in April that any attempt to write a new constitution should be based on an all-inclusive political dialogue comprising the Tatmadaw (Myanmar army), political parties, ethnic armed groups and other stakeholders. 

It will be interesting to see if the committee is formed and who will be the members to make a draft of the new constitution for Myanmar. AND how the new constitution differs from the present one.

New government attempts a ceasefire with the armed groups

Government peace negotiator U Tin Myo Win will meet with armed groups left out of last year’s ceasefire accord within the next few days, according to the Panglong Conference preparation committee. The senior National League for Democracy official will seek collaborators for the administration’s peace plan.

The former government rushed to sign a long-awaited peace deal in October last year just before the country’s landmark elections. It was signed by only eight out of 15 groups that were invited to sign, while other armed groups were excluded.

A detailed schedule for the upcoming meetings has not yet been confirmed, but according to U Hla Maung Shwe the first meeting will be held with the United Wa Solidarity Party/Army (UWSP/UWSA), the National Democracy Alliance Army (NDAA) and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K).

“We will meet within a few days,” he said.

The possible cease fire and future peace will really form the foundation to united Myanmar. Currently southern and central area are relatively peaceful but the north and most border and mountain areas are hard to access and basically uncontrolled by the government. 

US to promote doing business in Myanmar

US business delegations will visit Myanmar next week to seek investment opportunities that will also promote the country’s economic growth, Scot Marciel, the newly arrived US ambassador, announced yesterday.

Speaking to domestic media, Mr Marciel said the US Agency for International Development (USAID) would also come to Myanmar in a demonstration of support for the new government.

“I am very pleased the administrator of US Agency for International Development Gayle Smith … will be visiting here. She is arriving this weekend and going up to Nay Pyi Taw for talks with the government to hear first-hand from the government about its priorities and where we can be helpful,” the ambassador said.

“A large part of her trip is to hear from the government what the needs are, what the priorities are. That will help us not only immediately, but in the future to determine how best to use our assistance.

It looks like the US government is now pushing the private business to take interest investing and studying Myanmar markets. Usually in these newly opened,  developing countries the first investments are made to start garment factories (extremely low labor cost), improving farming to supply local and neighboring areas, brand name awareness and business consultation / legal support business. Also tourist/hotel and restaurant business develops at early part.

What I saw in China was the consumer supply demand line like this. Family want to get first; 

1. fridge

2. bicycle

3. TV

4. motorbike/vespa

5. car

6. rest of the consumer goods

7. travelling country

8. travelling abroad

Not necessary in this order but pretty much this is the way the market developed.

THE LONG ROAD TO DEMOCRACY

Here is a simple list of years to remember in Myanmar history and how it becomes (again) a democratic country.

1824

Britain makes its first incursions into the country. Two years later the Treaty of Yandabo cedes the Arakan coast to Britain. By 1886, Britain has completely annexed the country, making it part of British India. In the 1920s, protests begin against British rule.

1937 

In response to the protests, led by students, intellectuals and Buddhist monks, Britain declares Burma a crown colony separate from India. But in 1942 the country is occupied by Japan, with assistance from the Japanese-trained Burma Independence Army, later known as the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League, led by Aung San, father of Aung San Suu Kyi.

1945 

Britain regains control of the country from Japan, also with assistance from the AFPFL, which by now has changed sides after it became clear that Japan had no intention of honoring its promise of granting independence. Two years later, Aung San negotiates an agreement for independence, but is then assassinated by political opponents, along with six members of the interim government.

1948 

Burma achieves full independence under U Nu as prime minister, but a decade later he is ousted by the military under General Ne Win. In 1960, U Nu wins a general election but riles the military again by promoting Buddhism as the state religion and tolerating separatism.

1962 

Another coup led by Ne Win overthrows the government. The Social Programme party becomes the only political party. Twelve years later, a new constitution transfers power to a people’s assembly under Ne Win and other military officers.

1987

Demonstrations begin against the government, provoking a violent response from the military. Thousands die in anti-government riots. Two years later, the State Law and Order Restoration Council declares martial law and Aung San Suu Kyi is placed under the first of a series of house arrests. The country is renamed Myanmar.

1990 

The National League for Democracy (NLD) wins a general election but the military ignores the result. Aung San Suu Kyi wins the Nobel peace prize in 1991.

2003 

Khin Nyunt becomes prime minister, promising a new constitution, but is placed under house arrest in 2004. Three years later, anti-government protests by monks end in thousands of arrests, but in 2008 the military offers a new constitution. It does, however, award 25% of seats in parliament to the military and bans Aung San Suu Kyi from office.

2009 

Aung San Suu Kyi is jailed for breaching house arrest for three years, later commuted to 18 months’ further house arrest. Her party, the NLD, boycotts the following year’s election, which is won by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development party.

2011 

Thein Sein becomes president. The following year, the NLD makes big gains in byelections, winning 43 out of 45 seats it contests. Aung San Suu Kyi is elected to parliament, becoming leader of the opposition.

2015

A draft ceasefire is signed with 16 rebel militias. The NLD sweeps to victory in the general election, winning an overall majority. Four months later Htin Kyaw is installed as president.

2016

Miss Universe Myanmar 2015 & 2016

Two women in Myanmar were crowned on October 3rd to represent the country in Miss Universe pageant. May Thaw Barani (left) won the Miss Universe Myanmar 2015 title and will compete in the next Miss Universe pageant whose date and venue have not been confirmed, although rumor has it that it will be in Las Vegas in December. Htet Htet Htun (right) was crowned Miss Universe Myanmar 2016 and will compete in Miss Universe 2016 pageant. 

Probably not the most important news for this year but I have personally always liked the Burmese ladies beauty and grace. Good luck in competitions.

Russian warship visit in Yangon and EU trade talks

Russian pacific fleet warship visits Yangon

The flagship Admiral Vinogradov of the Russian Pacific Fleet approached the port of Thilawa at Yangon yesterday. It is a 163-meter warship – an Udaloy-class destroyer with around 300 crew.

Allies of Myanmar have a history of docking in Yangon. Several Chinese navy ships spent time here over recent years.

But the timing of the Admiral Vinogradov is significant as military ties between the two countries seem to be growing closer since the new NLD-led government began its tenure.

In April Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu met Myanmar’s Defence Minister Lieutenant General Sein Win to discuss “further strengthening … bilateral contacts and cooperation in the military and military-technical areas”.

“The political contacts have become more active in recent years. The bilateral cooperation is developing dynamically, especially in the naval field,” Mr Shoigu was quoted as saying by the Russian government-owned TASS news agency.

President U Htin Kyaw is due to attend a two-day ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit in Sochi, Russia. It is only his second official state visit abroad.

The expansion of military ties with Russia is seen as a result of two factors: reducing dependency on China and the continued imposition of US and European military sanctions.

The pressure is now on west to change their restricting policies towards Myanmar or it probably forces Myanmar to continue keep close ties to their friends, China and Russia, also with business.

Cyclone Roanu hit Myanmar

Even cyclone didn't hit the southern part of Myanmar directly, the damage and flooding effect was felt all over the country. At some parts of the Yangon, water level rise meters on streets and it took long time water to drain out after raining was over. 

During last 12 months, Yangon city has build new drainage systems and it helps a lot on normal rainy season at some part of the downtown. However the water downfall at Cyclone area is is so much higher than normal storm that there is probably no easy way to stop flooding totally.

EU and bilateral trade negotiations

EU has since 2014 negotiated trade agreement. The negotiations has been dragged for years due the reason that European wants to have human rights issues tied on trade negotiations. While I dont see anything wrong with this, I feel it is a little two faced demanding Myanmar something that they happily ignore in neighboring countries like China. While EU keeps pressing these issues and nothing happens, most Asian countries and even USA are acting and building manufacturing and other industries to Myanmar. 

I feel strongly that people should be treated equally (Finland is one of the most equal country in the world) but I have also learned that in Asia best way to press these issues is to make business, get money to economy and eventually the quality of the life improves to most people.  

If you don't do anything but sit on table and negotiate, you let countries, that have questionable reputation to take over the business practices. That will  leave people even worse position than letting relatively responsible  European companies to compete and hire employees and help the country faster to get equality and democracy.

Chancing thinking and law will take long time and while nothing happens people keep suffering more. 

“The EU must ensure its investment agreement with Burma compels EU investors to implement their obligation to respect human rights. The Burmese people must benefit from foreign investment, not be harmed by it. The investment agreement is incomplete without meaningful measures to address the human rights situation in Myanmar.” said Debbie Stothard, ALTSEAN-Myanmar Coordinator and FIDH Secretary-General. 

IMHO, I don't think European companies will have problem with human rights abuses but some other countries will, who do human rights abuses themselves.  At current time, I don't think EU has muscle to pressure enough with political means when there are more than enough countries ready to do business, regardless what EU says, in Myanmar.

Well, if EU succeeds and can create a reliable system  to monitor all US, Chinese, EU and Russian factories  in country, good luck and good for us/them. Sometimes I think EU loves to make rules for them self and others, even so much it doesn't make any sense in real world anymore. We have first hand experience of this in Finland.

While EU negotiates US acts;

John Kerry Visits Myanmar

Video:

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday urged Myanmar's new civilian-led government to complete the Southeast Asian nation's transition to democracy by implementing further reforms to enshrine free markets, development and human rights.

Speaking with Myanmar's foreign minister and de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, after talks in the capital of Naypyidaw, Kerry pledged continuing U.S. support for the country and hailed progress it has made since Suu Kyi's political party took office in late March after winning historic elections that ended decades of military control.

"We strongly support the democratic transition that is taking place here," Kerry said.

His visit came less than a week after the Obama administration lifted sanctions against 10 state-run companies and banks in a sweeping modification of penalties imposed while Myanmar was under military rule. The administration, however, left in place restrictions on trade and investment with the nation's still-powerful military. The changes are intended to spur more U.S. investment and support economic growth under the new government, but also to encourage more reforms.

Ooredoo first to go 4G

The Qatari firm is the first mobile operator in Myanmar’s highly competitive telecoms market to offer 4G services, which the company says will offer faster internet speeds.

The operator aims to cover one-half of Yangon’s townships, all of Mandalay and about 90 percent of Nay Pyi Taw’s townships, Ooredoo CEO Rene Meza said at a launch event on May 20.

“This is the beginning of a journey,” he said. “We’re going to be expanding our network as we go along, and it will be driven fundamentally by spectrum.”

When I went to Myanmar at 2014 November, there was already talk about granting 4G licenses.  I also contacted few of my connections in telecom field but I didn't get much interest at that time. 

Well, naturally it is easier for those, who already operate in country to expand their network and investment but at that time the market was also open for newcomer to get in. Now it will be harder and harder as the old operators tend to protect their market share and operation with different means.

New Airport to Bago And American business and sanctions + SUOMI OSIO

New Airport to Bago 

Latest news is that  construction of a new international airport at Hanthawaddy, Bago, is scheduled to start in late 2016. The new airport will be 49% funded by a $0.75 billion Official Development Aid loan from the Japanese government.

Myanmar will likely hit the maximum capacity of the current Yangon Airport at very near future and even with the third terminal expansion, the airport area is still limited to how many Airplanes it can handle daily basis. The expanding tourist business needs bigger and better Airport and the Bago city, near Yangon has decided to be the solution to problem. 

Because of the numerous problems so far, the planned 2016 opening is very optimistic and IMHO there are some other issues that should be handled first. The "highway" between Bago and Yangon is actually not highway but a rural road where everything from cow farmers to markets exists at almost middle of the road. Before the Airport is ready, the new express highway or 2 should be build as well as high speed train. And since I have not seen much news about the planning of these, I suspect there wont be anything ready when Airport is supposed to start.

Latest news is that with the local company Shwe Than Lwin Co. and  ANA (All Nippon Airways) are investing to new airways called Asian Blue Aviation. It sure is good to have more connections to Myanmar but the very limited land routes will fast hinder the development inside the country. If you have ever seen full packed Indian trains having people hanging all over them, the sight might be same in Myanmar at next few years. However since the current train speed is very low (40-60km / hour) it might not be that dangerous as it would be with trains travelling 200 km/ hour.

AMCHAM Myanmar hosts American Business delegation

About 30 companies from USA will visit Myanmar and different ministries at Nay Pyi Taw, the capital of Myanmar. Led by US Ambassador to Myanmar, Mr Scot Marciel, the delegation will discuss ways to improve the Myanmar business environment and bring in more US direct investment into the country.

“The American Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar and the American business community here would like to see the country develop and thrive, and spurring the economy and creating jobs is essential to that process.  As the Myanmar government is committed to creating a business environment benefiting both investors and the people of Myanmar by improving infrastructure and rule of law, while strengthening its leadership development, AMCHAM is at the government’s disposal to provide advice, expertise, and support in bringing Myanmar’s economic climate in line with international standards and best practices making it a friendlier environment for investors,” says Andrew Lee, Chief Country Representative for GE and member of AMCHAM Myanmar’s Executive Committee.

US sanctions against Myanmar

USA sure seems to be very committed to expand business in Myanmar after long period of sanctions blocking Burma out from the world market. Just checking quickly the US government current sanction list against Myanmar, there are still many restrictions, what can be done and import from Myanmar to USA and their "friend" countries.

You can find the list from here: US Government sanctions towards Myanmar.  However The Reuters reports that Obama administration plans to renew bulk of US sanctions against Myanmar, officials say. Will be interesting to see when they are completely lifted. I have had some personal experiences with this sending US dollars to Myanmar and US bank stopping the money in US so that it never reached the country. And I never saw the money again. Well, nowadays it is easy to send Euros to country also so companies do not need to depend on Dollar transactions.

The US plans to renew the bulk of its sanctions against Myanmar when they expire next week, but will make some changes aimed at boosting investment and trade, according to several senior US officials and congressional aides.

Secretary of state John Kerry will visit Myanmar at 22. of May.  Kerry’s visit to Myanmar is his first since the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, the country’s Nobel laureate, swept to power following a landslide election win in November. A constitution drafted by the country’s former military rulers bars her from becoming president.

By renewing the legal framework for sanctions even as it eases some measures, Obama will offer the private sector more breathing room while maintaining pressure on its military, which still holds significant political power. The sanctions had been due to expire on 20 May

SUOMI OSIO

Jälleen yksi kevät lopuillaan ja Suomi jatkaa lamassa rämpimistä. Lama on kestänyt Suomessa lähes kahdeksan vuotta ja vaikka muutamia positiivisia uutisia taloudesta on näkynyt niin viennin jatkaessa laskuaan, Toistemme palvelemisella emme tule tätä maata saamaan uuteen nousuun. Ainoa pelastus mielestäni olisi jonkinlainen viennin organisoinnin uusi renesassi Suomessa.  Kysymys, Miksi Suomen keskisuurella teollisuudella on niin korkea kynnys lähteä uusiin kehittyviin maihin, Kuten tällä hetkellä Myanmar? 

Suur teollisuus on yleensä paikalla näissä paikoissa sillä heidän kansainvälinen organisaatio pitää huolen että markkinoita seurataan ajoissa. Nokia, Kone + muutama muu suuryritys on jo vahvasti mukana kehittämässä omaa liiketoimintaansa alueella mutta samanlaista innostusta, kuin Italialla, Ranskalla, Saksalla, Norjalla, Ruotsilla ja Englannilla on Burmassa, en näe Suomesta. Tulemme taas olemaan se jälkijunassa saapuva joka ihmettelee että onpa täällä liikaa kilpailua, ei meidän enää kannata investoida.  

No milloin sinne kannattaisi sitten investoida, jos ei nyt kun on vielä aikaista, tai muutaman vuoden päästä kun siellä on ahdasta?

Olen aikaisemmin luetellut muutamia aloja joissa Suomis olisi kilpailukykyinen. Tavattuani korkeita virkamiehiä Burmassa, viesti lähes kaikilla oli että tulkaa ihmeessä tarjoamaan tuotteita ja investoimaan projekteihin ettei kaikkia tarvitsisi antaa Kiinalaisille. No nyt siellä on jo monet Aasian maat ja USA + keski-Eurooppa on menossa sisään joten tarjoajista ei ole pulaa joidenkin vuosien päästä. Toivottavasti Suomalais firmat ovat mukana myös jollain panoksella.

Illegal logging and more + SUOMI osio

Illegal logging and more + SUOMI osio

Illegal logging at northern border

China (and several other neighboring countries) has been cutting mainly TEAK trees for years illegally with the locals support in the border areas. Myanmar has one of the largest teak forests, still intact, in Asia but as the more developed Asian countries has lost their own teak forests, they have turned their interest to Myanmar's vast forest reserves. 

To complicate the matter further, several border areas are still controlled by by local militia / armies. Northern part has KIA, Kachin Independece Army (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kachin_Independence_Army),  North-east has  several small armies run by areal warlords. End of last year many fighting opposition forces has signed a peace agreement with Myanmar tatmandaw but there was as many who didn't agree to sign and so the civil war continues at border areas.

Here are some of the signed and not signed contract groups;

Signatories (Pro-Government)	Non-Signatories (Opposition)
* All-Burma Students’ Democratic Front	* Arakan Army
* Arakan Liberation Party	* Kachin Independence Organization
* Chin National Front	* Karenni Natl. Progressive Party
* Democratic Karen Benevolent Army	* Lahu Democratic Union
* Karen Natl. Lib. Army – Peace Council	* Myanmar Natl. Democratic Alliance Army
* Karen National Union	* Natl. Soc. Council of Nagaland – Khaplang
* Pa-O National Liberation Organization	* New Mon State Party
* Shan State Army – South	* Ta’ang National Liberation Army
	* United Wa State Army

So the illegal activities continues at many rural areas. Other big business is drug manufacturing and smuggling, general goods smuggling and people crossing borders without legal rights and illegal fishing.

Just now Tatmandaw (Myanmar army) has started some operations to stop lot of these illegal activities.

Opium farming

Just recently the following statement  was made at the 4th Myanmar Opium Farmers’ Forum held in Loikaw, Kayah State on 9 May 2016.

“We, opium farmers and representatives of Kayah, Kayan, Shan, Pa-O, Lahu, Ta-ang (Palaung) and Kachin opium farming communities from Kayah State, Southern, Eastern and Northern Shan State, and Kachin State, came together in Loikaw, in Kayah State in Myanmar, to discuss the challenges we face in our lives, and to share experiences and find ways to solve our problems.

We would like to make the following recommendations to the new government of Myanmar:

....

This goes on about few pages of text. My point here is that as long as the golden triangle (Burma, Laos, Thailand border corner) has existed, big part of the drugs coming from this area are grown at Myanmar. The farmers in the area has generally tried to just survive and has been farming opium by the pressure from local militias as well as getting better income from it, comparing to any other product. 

As long as there is no better source for money for them, the problem continues.  New government is very busy with developing Central area and these rural border areas will unlikely get any attention for long time, except the local war...

Swedish minister visits Myanmar at 30.April 2016

The Swedish Minister for Development Cooperation, Isabella Lövin, visited Myanmar to meet with development partners and ministers in the new government, including State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi over the last two days. 

Ms Lövin wrote the following editorial about her country’s relationship with Myanmar and future engagement.

“The relationship between Sweden and Myanmar has a long history. Sweden’s first Ambassador to Burma was appointed in 1955 and resident in New Delhi. Since the mid 1990’s, Sweden has provided support to Myanmar’s democracy movement. More recently, we have expanded our support to the people of Myanmar to include the improvement of health, engagement in the peace process, and the protection of human rights.

I am very pleased to visit Myanmar for the first time as Sweden’s Minister for International Development Cooperation. Now that Myanmar has a new Government based on a solid mandate from the people, I look very much forward to working with this Government and with the people of Myanmar.

During my visit, I will meet with development partners in Myanmar, and I will learn more about the challenges that the new Government is facing. I believe there are many areas where Sweden and Myanmar can learn from each other, and Sweden is ready to listen to the priorities of Myanmar. We would also be happy to share our own experiences, for example in the area of public administration.

The current Swedish Government is the world’s first feminist Government putting women's rights and gender equality is at the core of all policies including development cooperation. This means that all areas of our support to Myanmar have a strong focus on gender equality and the fulfillment of human rights for women.

In particular, we are actively contributing to the international agenda for Women, Peace and Security. This is, I believe, highly relevant for Myanmar in the current peace process. Conclusions from international research and experiences from a range of other countries show that women’s participation helps ensure that peace agreements are actually concluded and that peace becomes sustainable. I therefore strongly believe that the peace process in Myanmar would benefit from the participation of women.

Other examples of our commitment to fulfill women’s rights are our support to promote sexual and reproductive health and rights, as well as maternal health in Myanmar. We are also supporting projects aimed at enhancing women’s political participation.

On the international arena, we want to work with the new Government on the important global challenges that we collectively face. Sweden attaches great importance to the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. I welcome a strong partnership with Myanmar in working towards these goals. With Agenda 2030, I truly believe we share a common agenda.

Finally, let me take this opportunity to warmly congratulate the people of Myanmar on the positive steps taken towards democracy in recent times. Sweden is ready to support Myanmar in its endeavor to achieve a resilient, inclusive, fair and prosperous society, where democracy flourishes and where everyone can have their voices heard.”

Latest visit was done by Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida at beginning of the month. As the foreign minister arrived in Nay Pyi Taw, the United Nations issued a statement thanking Japan for its US$31.7 million donation to their operations in Myanmar.

Myanmar Stock Exchange

Early this year Myanmar launched the stock exchange. So far there has been just one company listed as testing process. Myanmar Thilawa SEZ Holdings, the developer of Thilawa Special Economic Zone, is preparing to list on the Myanmar Stock Exchange at the end of May, the second company to go public.

The company has completed preparations to list, and the Yangon Stock Exchange is expected to give it the green light, according to the Nikkei Asian Review on April 29. The company was established in 2013 by nine local companies, including real estate developers. It is building a roughly 400-hectare industrial park in Thilawa, southeast of Yangon, with Japanese trading houses Mitsubishi Corp., Marubeni and Sumitomo Corp.

Myanmar Thilawa SEZ Holdings does not plan to issue any new shares when going public but will have the option of doing so to raise funds in the future.

The more interesting news will be when all major companies in Myanmar joins the stock exchange and the actual share trading starts. As in the history the rush for mining the "stock gold" will probably be huge but the hangover might hit hard eventually, like in China recently.

SUOMI OSIO - Myanmar matkailu

Viime talvena ollessani pääosin Yangonissa, päätin tehdä muutaman kierroksen keski ja etelä Myanmariin nähdäkseni maata turistin silmin. Kiertomatka Pagan-Mandalay-Inle lake avasi silmiäni Myanmarin todella vanhaan historiaan ja kulttuuriin. Matkani etelään Kawthaung kaupunkiin Thaimaan rajalla avasi ranta turismin mahdollisuudet Myanmarissa. Maalla on vielä satoja kilometrejä valkoista hiekkarantaa etelässä ja lännessä ja turismia ei ole siellä vielä käytännössä ollenkaan. 

Kawthaung satamasta pääsee myös helposti paikalliseen Kasino saareen, jonne virtaa uhkapelaajia Myanmarista ja Thaimaasta mutta myös Kiinasta.

Mielestäni Myanmar on vierailemisen arvoinen paikka nyt vielä kun kaikki vanha ei ole modernisoitu ja ihmiset elävät edelleenkin vanhojen perinteiden mukaan. Historiallista nähtävää on paljon mutta rantamatkailussa kannattaa ehkä odottaa muutama vuosi.

Kirjoitin  muutama vuosi sitten pari kuukautta blogia Yangonin vierailustani ja jos se joitakuita vielä kiinnostaa, löytyy se osoitteesta:

Kingfishfi.blogspot.fi

Minulta myös löytyy kiertomatkani aikataulu jonka laitan jossain vaiheessa myös tänne mutta jos joku suunnittelee matkaa Myanmariin jo nyt niin ottakaa yhteyttä ja voin antaa vinkkejä.

Rakhine State war in Myanmar + SUOMI osio

Rakhine State war in Myanmar + SUOMI osio

Rakhine State

The fight at western Myanmar has been long between central government and Rakhine State or actually Rakhine people. Their nomad lifestyle is not very suitable for modern world as they move a lot between Myanmar  and Bangladesh. Myanmar considers them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and they try to defend their old lifestyle, not being bound to one place in life. Rakhine army "Arakan Army" has not been included in recent years peace talks, that has been happening between many other fighting Armies around Myanmar. Now the new parliament would like to start the peace talks between Myanmar army "Tatmadaw" and Arakan Army.  Tatmandaw has been against this development.

Peace would be important for Myanmar future to start developing the untouched long coastal area for tourism and fishing industry.

Other political news

Lately there has been debate and proposal to remove many "anti-opposition"  laws that are against human rights and international laws.  Many of them has been used against opposition members jailing them without court or placing their members to house arrest with the reason just opposing the ruling government peacefully.

Main laws considered are:

The 1975 State Protection Act, also known as the “Law to Safeguard the State Against the Dangers of Those Desiring to Cause Subversive Acts”, was enacted under the Burma Socialist Program Party. Many opposition figures, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, were imprisoned under it.

Several other laws like  the Electronic Transactions Law, the Unlawful Associations Act, and the Peaceful Assembly and Peaceful Procession Law are also looked in to.

Corruption

The new government has been announcing to make all sections of government as corruption free. Myanmar is, like many other Asian countries, corrupted country by western standards.  It appears in every section of business and government interactions and creates the problem with collecting taxes, serving people equally and generally placing people to different position when dealing with officials. Myanmar is not the only country that this happens by any means but it has been very open there, unlike many other countries. 

Now the Director U Tet Htut Aung is telling that the new civilian-led government had pledged to establish a corruption-free society.  The first public memos has also been published with instructions of maximum "gift" amount of cash that officials are allowed to take. As giving and receiving gifts has been a very big part of dealing with officials, this will be a long road to get 100% clean system. IMHO it must include the salary increases in all sections of government as with the current salary levels it is not possible to maintain house and family in Yangon, unless government support it with many other indirect ways.

According to the Asian Development Bank, Myanmar has one of the “lowest levels of tax yield in the world”. It said the actual tax yield was calculated at just 6.6 percent of economic output in the 2013 fiscal year.

The Business Anti-Corruption Portal, a guide to compliance partly funded by Western governments, warns investors seeking to do business in Myanmar, “Companies face a high risk of corruption in the tax administration in Myanmar.” “Irregular payments in connection with tax payments are commonly exchanged. Almost 40pc of firms expect to give gifts in meetings with tax officials. Businesses in Myanmar spend on average 188 hours per year preparing, filing and paying taxes.”

Rental prices drops in Yangon

The price to rent a decent "expat" apartment has been very high in Yangon, from low end USD 1000.- up USD 5000.- average being over USD 2000.- region. The reason has been sudden influx of foreign businessmen seeking the new market and lack of suitable apartments in Yangon. Since 2014 the situation has been improved a lot and the prices are already down over 20%. By the year 2017, there will be many new condominiums and the prices are expected to fall even further. 

While prices fall, the cost is still high compared to neighboring Thailand and with same price you can find a decent flat even in Singapore. So I would say the housing bubble will burst somehow in coming years but it also depends on how attractive business environment the Myanmar becomes in next few years.

Telecoms market news

Telenor reaches 15,5m users while MPT, the government owned telecom company , still has the lead with over 19m users and third operator OOREEDOO having 6 m customers.

Telenor Myanmar has more than doubled SIM cards sold since the first quarter of 2015, giving it an estimated 38 percent share of the local market, according to the company’s first quarter figures released yesterday. However, its base is growing more slowly than before. Despite this, the numbers seemed to defy expectations at Telenor’s top level.

“I think I’ve said for many quarters now that this cannot continue, but it does,” said Group CEO Sigve Brekke during the company’s financial results presentation. “One-and-a-half years into operation ... [Telenor Myanmar] is now cash-flow-positive for the first time.”  Telenor Myanmar’s operating cash flow margin came to 10pc, according to the results.

“And despite the aggressive rollout I expect them to be able to stay in the positive territory,” Mr Brekke said. Meanwhile, the company’s margin on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation – or operating profitability – reached 42pc. Revenues for the quarter came to NOK 1.7 billion (US$211.9 million), up 15pc from Q4 2015 and 124pc from Q1 2015.

I think this is pretty good result with such a short time in country's telecoms market. 

Also Ooredoo has got in to profit with their operation, having 6,9m customers by now since they start few years ago.

Internet

Main problem in Myanmar internet is not the supply of SIM cards or internet lines but the pipeline of data capacity out of country. If you build your service inside country, the response times are decent but getting to watch like Youtube videos, you better do it after midnight. Unless you pay top dollars for connections. This winter I paid about USD 135.- / month for 1MB "unlimited" internet connection but it was usable barely after midnight. Otherwise anything to do with online data was not possible to use.

Naturally the service in country improves as 5 years ago there was no Internet at all, the service today is much better ;)

SUOMI OSIO

Maanantaina 02.05-2016 oli Helsingissa FinPron järjestämä Myanmar seminaari jossa puhujina oli eri valtion sektoreilta asiaan liittyviä henkilöitä ja Aasiasta Myanmariin liittyviä FinPron henkilöitä. Seminaari oli mielenkiintoinen mutta silmiin pisti yllättävän vähälukuinen joukko maasta kiinnostuneita, vaikka seminaari oli ilmainen. Ehkä asiaan vaikutti myös muualla Suomessa järjestetyt osiot mutta olisi kuitenkin luullut että Helsingissä on enemmän yrityksiä, jotka haluavat tutustua yhteen maailman nopeimmin kasvavavista markkina-alueista.

 

Tärkeänä näen että hallituksemme ja viento organisaatiot pitävät melua kuitenkin avautuvista markkinista sillä on kuitenkin aina muutamia uskaliaita yrityksiä, jotka haluavat lähteä aikaisin markkinoille. Tilaisuudestahan puuttuvat niiden yritysten edustajat, jotka ovat jo etabloituneet markkinoille.

Rahoituksen osalta Myanmar asettaa edelleen suuria rajoituksia puutteellisen lainsäädännön takia ja paikallisten pankkien uutuuden tai Amerikkalaisten valuutta saarron takia. Tietääkseni yksikään Suomalais pankki ei ole tehnyt virallista edustussopimusta Myanmariin ja siten rahoituskuviot menevät aina jonkun kolmannen pankin kautta lisäten kuluja ja rahojen läpimenoaikaa. Jos mahdollista, Euroja kannattaa käyttää rahasiirroissa sillä kokemuksesta tiedän että USD siirrot saattavat jäädä matkalle Amerikan keskuspankkiin ja niiden takaisin saamisesta ei ole takeita ellei ole hyviä Amerikkalaisia lakimiehiä.

Lopuksi, jos teillä on asioita, joista haluaisi kuulla enemmän (Myanmarin osalta) niin otan mielelläni palautetta. Esim. pasi.simonen(at)kpt.fi 

It's HOT in politics and outdoors... + Suomi osio

It's HOT in politics and outdoors...

Summer temperature peaks with power blackouts in Myanmar

As the temperature rises over 40 degrees Celsius in many areas, the power outages makes it even harder the bear.  Also eight people died, as the hailstorms hit the country last week. The hails, size of the golf balls hit the ground and damaged thousands of  houses. Also April 13, 2016 M 6.9 earthquake hit the southeast of Mawlaik, damaging buildings around Myanmar.

The government is suffering the yearly power shortage in the country, which has the least power available currently in South-east Asia. The master plan is to increase the power capacity and consumption from current 2700MW to 4531MW at 2020, 8121MW by the year 2025 and 14525MW at the year 2030. Even that is lacking from the neighboring Thailand's consumption currently 27000MW.  There is lot of demand and work to be done in power field in Myanmar at coming years. And opportunities for Europeans!

Part of the problem of developing this field seems to be public opposition against hydro power (or who actually owns and benefits from it) and coal power plants (which is obvious). Since the social media is pretty free in Myanmar, lot of people are demanding the explanations about the power shortages from the Ministry of Electricity and Energy.

Parliament planning to end the rules for overnight visitors

There is a special law in Myanmar, that restricts people to stay overnight anywhere else but their registered home address. All visitors must be reported in advance to local administrative office. That pretty much restricts any visitor staying past midnight visiting friends and relatives in anywhere else but home or public places. Good fro restaurant business, bad for country's imago. While at it, I would change the rule for foreign visitors to stay only in the hotel or resort, not in private homes. Anywhere else, if I have an friend coming to visit, he can stay in my home and it is not a big deal.

New government struggle to amend the constitution

Myanmar court has dropped charges against 69 students, who has been in prison since March 2015. Also 83 political prisoners were released recently by the pardon from Myanmar new president Htin Kyaw. Among those released were four journalists and an executive from the newspaper Unity Journal, who were sentenced to 10 years hard labor in 2014 for reporting on an alleged military chemical weapons factory. The new National League for Democracy (NLD) government of former detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has released or dropped charges against 282 people accused of political crimes since taking power on April 1.

The new government has been trying two times to amend the constitution without success due the eto from the permanent parliament seat holders of 25% of parliament seats, which is enough to stop any progress. NLD is now planning to rewrite the whole constitution instead of trying to change or amend the old one. In any country this is a big job and specially big in Myanmar, which is taking the first baby steps towards the real democracy. IMHO this will take years and a lot will happen during it. But it seems that country will stay "as it was" without government being able to change the constitution as there are a lot of of limiting laws for all areas of life.

USDP, the former majority holder in government has sacked 17 senior members from party lead, including U Shwe Mann, former acting party chairman and former speaker of the Union Parliament and House of Representatives (Lower House). Along with U Shwe Mann, other senior USDP members removed include U Maung Maung Thein, U San Shwe Aung, U Ko Ko Naing, U Zaw Myint Pe, U Thein Zaw and Thura U Aung Ko.

Also Daw Aung San Suu Kyi orders civil servants not to accept any gifts worth 25,000+ kyat (about USD 20.- or EUR 18.- ) as part of anti-corruption campaign. As in Asia the giving and getting gifts is deeply part of business and social environment, I doubt if this has any effect in that culture.

Commercial news;

Another telecoms company, Viettel enters to Myanmar with the investment of US$ 1.5 billion to build the nationwide 3G-only mobile network in 900MHz and 2100MHz frequency bandwidths. They also plan to launch 4G service later. Before Viettel there has been 3 established 3G mobile networks with MPT (government owned telecoms company), Telenor from Norway and OOREDOO from Qatar.

Finnish part, SUOMI OSIO

Käytyäni ensimmäisen kerran Burmassa vuonna 1989 ja lisääntyvinä vierailuina sekä viimeisen puolen vuoden oleskelustani nykyisessä Myanmarissa, täytyy aluksi sanoa että en ole missään Aasian maassa nähnyt vastaavaa potentiaalia mille tahansa alalle kuin Burmassa ja aikanaan Kiinassa. Maa on ollut lähes saman verran suljettuna vuosikymmeniä, kuin Pohjois Korea mutta Burman avauduttua viime vuonna, (virallisesti jo viisi vuotta sitten mutta minun kirjoissani oikeasti vasta nyt), on kehitys maassa ollut silminnähtävää. Isoin potentiaali on varmasti turismin kehittämisessä, maallahan on tuhat kilometriä trooppista hiekkarantaa ja tuhansia vuosia vanhat historialliset vierailu kohteet.

Mutta katsoen Suomen vinkkelistä asioita, meillä olisi erinomaiset mahdollisuudet vedenpuhdistus teknologian, vesi-sähkö tekniikan ja tietoliikenteen kehittämisessä maahan. Myös Finnairilla olisi tänä vuonna erinomainen mahdollisuus varata "laituri" Yangonin kansainväliseltä lentokentältä sillä pian kentän kapasiteetti on varattu ja sen jälkeen saapuville lehtoyhtiöille on tilaa ainoastaan lähes 200km päähän valmistuvalle uudelle lentokentälle, Peguun. Jo pelkkä kenttä varaus (sinne ei tarvitse lentää itse) tulee olemaan todella arvokas sillä kenttähän on lähes Yangonin keskustassa. Jo pelkkä neuvottelujen aloittaminen ja tietojen selvittäminen olisi kannattavaa tulevaisuuden kannalta.

Myös monilla muilla aloilla alkaa etsikkoaika, josta aikaisin markkinoille saapuneet nappaavat parhaat palat.